Riot Beta Data

 “Who Were the January 6th Rioters?”

The University of Chicago (UofC) has published data on who was arrested on January 6, 2001. The data shows some confirmation of what the Left has been saying. Several things are obvious – they were mostly 'white' male Trumpers. The UofC data from May 2021 shows 420+ arrestees. In their present database there are 824 arrestees. Of the 824 in the present DB, almost 86% are male and nearly all white, at around 96%. As of 1/04/2024 there have been 1,265 arrested, so their database still contains a partial count. Over 800 people entered the Capitol, a small fraction of the overall crowd.

Of special interest to leftists is their class standing. Traveling to Washington D.C. is a somewhat expensive undertaking, so this will scew the figures, especially from distant locations. No one from South or North Dakota or Nebraska was arrested for instance, but at least one person from 47 other states was. How the survey considers class position is unclear, but here they are. In their figures 149 were blue-collar and 47 unemployed. By their figures 147 were business owners, 153 were white-collar, 66 were 'self-employed,' 20 were students and 17 were retired. What this shows is a serious majority were not blue-collar but small business, well-off types not fitting the stereotype of a simple blue-collar 'hand' worker. What the 'retired' used to do is unclear, but evidently they had the time, energy, money and perhaps age to show up. Maybe they retired early.

It shows that about 28.5% were college or graduate school attendees. About 46% were high school or less. This shows that the common 'class' analysis of journalists and bad politicians that “education = class” is mistaken. Business owners might be less educated, as might white collars or the self-employed – but they earn their living differently, so their class standing is different.  They might be wealthier or run some kind of 'gig' business. These aren't people obviously in desperate straights, although their businesses might be failing. Certainly most of the unemployed were not unemployed willingly. Or the unemployed lied to hide their employment or were well-off, which is why they weren't working.

The majority – almost 63% - were married. Their age range centered in the middle range – from 26 to about 55. These are not kids but neo-liberal Reagan babies. The 7 top states which supplied the most rioters were in descending order: Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, New York, California, Ohio & Virginia. All but Texas and California are on the east coast, which figures given D.C.'s location. But it does confirm that both Florida and Texas are hotbeds of reaction, which is not news, while Cali has reactionary pockets like Orange County.

In an interview with Amanpour & Co. UofC professor Robert Pape, talking about the first 420+ arrests, claimed that the main driver motivating these people was “the Great Replacement” theory. He said they are worried their rights as light-skinned people are disappearing compared to darker-skinned individuals. So a form of racist fear is at the heart of their politics according to Pape. He 'proves' this by looking at the counties these people came from, which were losing white residents. He then consults a different survey that showed 1., a disbelief in Biden's victory, 2., a willingness to use violence and 3,. a belief in the 'Great Replacement' idea were all linked by 4% of the U.S. population. However he never interviewed the arrestees, so this conclusion is iffy as to the arrestees. Instead he lays these surveys on top of his data and makes a parallel assumption. In addition, sometimes people say one thing in surveys but are really motivated by something else.

In this interview Pape describes the data. Owners and white collars in the database were “CEOs, business owners, mid-level managers, doctors, lawyers, accountants, bureaucrats.” This gives us a bit of insight into how the data considers white-collar and business owner categories, seeming to combine them with professionals. This all seems somewhat accurate. We've heard of a millionairess that chartered a plane and claimed she wouldn't get arrested because she was a white blonde lady. Ashley Babbitt, the 35 year old woman shot by Capitol police, ran a failing business in California. She was not counted in this data.

Pape in his May 6, 2021 interview, downplays the militia involvement based on their lower numbers. He does not include violence outside the Capitol, which seems significant to any theory. However, militias act as leaders and it takes only a few to break windows and doors, to lead people to locations, to coordinate. The later 824 figures show that 57 Proud Boys, 28 Oath Keepers and 2 Bogaloo Boys were arrested inside the Capitol – 89 total or 10.8%. They have no listing for the 3%ERS, but I've seen news reports that at least 6 were also indicated.  These numbers are not insignificant. These groups function as shock troops and actually aspire to that role. 18% of total arrestees were ex or present military and police. This gives leftist confirmation to the role these institutions play in birthing ultra-right & fascist groups throughout history.

The Marxist Left via Zetkin, the Third International and later Trotsky warned that the despairing petit-bourgeois (small businessmen) are the main base of fascism. They turn to racism and nationalism as some kind of defense. Anti-democratic groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and 3 Percenters are an organizational form of this. Even though small businessmen are really being crowded by large capital they are unable to see an alternative to the capitalist system. In fact most do not WANT an alternative to the capitalist system. So they seek other enemies to preserve their livelihoods and in the process drag workers behind them. This also accounts for their hostility to big capital sometimes.

The actual U.S. Left is too weak to attract many workers with a real alternative, which is the main, crushing failure of the Left in the U.S. This is why Trumpers, like their forebears in the KKK and John Birch Society, think the neo-liberal, capitalist Democratic Party is 'Communist.' They need to create powerful Commies out of nothing, as fascism needs that bogeyman too. In fact this is their main propaganda thrust - this while the real 'commies' have little influence except sometimes in the street. The press never goes into the Trumpist's anti-communism and anti-socialism, as the press itself shares those ideas.

The UofC should update their figures to reflect the recent 1,265 figure and see if this changes anything significantly.

References: 824 Data and 420 Interview

Prior blog reviews on this subject, use blog search box, upper left, to investigate our 17 year archive, using these terms: “The Undertow” (Sharlet); “Anti-Fascist Series #7: It Was Predictable,” “Anti-Fascist Series #,” “It Can't Happen Here,” “The Ultra-Right,” “Hungary,” “Blackshirts and Reds” (M. Parenti); “Impeachapalooza,” “A Confederacy of Dunces?” “The Not So Secret,” “Antifascism, Sports & Sobriety.”

Red Frog

February 4, 2024