Thoughts on Ukraine: (as if we don't have enough...)
The Minsk II agreement in 2015 between Ukraine, Russia and
E.U. has been ignored by the U.S. and Ukrainian government and hard-right. Sec. Blinken was upset that Russia had broken
it - after the U.S. had already done so. It would have created a ‘neutral’
Ukraine, free to trade with both blocs, giving limited autonomy to the Donbas,
without Ukraine being in NATO. An example of Finlandization, which has worked in the capitalist context. However the U.S. has no interest in negotiating an end to this war. They prefer it to go on as long as possible.
The U.S. refused to deal with several of these points,
including NATO membership. NATO and the
U.S. swore that NATO would not move ‘an inch’ east in 1990, in conversations
with Gorbachev … but it has, step by step.
This obviously concerned Russia, which previously hoped for better
relationships with Europe and the U.S.
The Donetsk and Lugansk ‘republics’ are to be absorbed into
Russia. Were these republics reflective
of “the self determination of nations?”
It is doubtful whether they could function on their own as economic
units – a key part of being a nation.
Though now economies are so intertwined across borders that this
definition is becoming moot, as are some so-called ‘nations.’ Certainly parts seceded in practice in 2014,
which included a vote by part of the population. Part of the reason was the poor economic
conditions in Ukraine and the better ones in Russia. However, nearly half of
the Donbas remained in Ukrainian hands.
The secessionist Donetsk and Luhansk areas were subjected
to anti-Russian activities by anti-Russian, anti-Semitic and fascist units after the Maidan
coup, which prompted the secession effort. 15,000 have died since then in this civil war. Well
known neo-Nazi Azov units were included across the Ukrainian Army as part of this
low-level civil war, something Western journalists have played dumb about. Anti-Semites, neo-fascists and Russian white nationalists operate
inside the Republics as well, even though some are draped in the hammer and
sickle. The Wagner Group, Rusich and the Russian Imperialist Movement (RIM) are a few.
This invasion might remind some of the Sudetenland, and even present ‘democratic’ authoritarians who claim territories in other countries because of linguistic and ethnic populations who they claim are oppressed. For instance, Orban’s Hungary promotes a ‘Greater Hungary’ in Ukraine, Slovakia, Romania, Slovenia, etc. Yet Hungarians in these countries are not oppressed minorities. Of note, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Poland, Roman Giertych, has claimed that Russia, Hungary and Poland signed a secret agreement to divide up Ukraine prior to the invasion. That is now moot.
This ethno-nationalist attitude was also the
logic of the wars which destroyed Yugoslavia, initiated by Germany and
NATO. This suicidal method results in endless
right-wing revanchism in country after country, yet in a world of
inter-penetrated peoples. We see another example of it in Ethiopia. For the proletarian struggle to really become
a focal point in these areas, peace and independence are needed, as
is an end to national and ethnic oppression. But they cannot exist in the context of inter-capitalist rivalry.
The invasion by Russia is motivated by great Russian
chauvinism, but also as a defense strategy to create a buffer with NATO. Putin
sending troops and tanks into Donetsk and Lugansk, and now Ukraine itself, puts
the Nordstream I & II gas pipelines to Europe at severe risk – or ends them. Shutting down these gas pipelines is the real
immediate goal of the U.S. Strangling
the Russian economy – making it ‘scream,’ is the intermediate goal. Taking it over is the ultimate goal - regime change. The
issue of gas is a key material fact that shows this is an inter-capitalist
struggle. The struggle over oil backgrounds both the Russians and the U.S. in this fight too. The logic of eastern European
gas supplying western Europe seems to make sense, over U.S. gas supplying
Europe. At least if you actually planned
an economy…
Cutting Russia out of access to the banking system's SWIFT technology will be a heavy blow to Russian capitalism, as is freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. This has driven the ruble to new lows. Putin will lose here, though he may think China and India are his
backdoors to economic survival. It's not just the Ukrainian working class who are and will suffer. European workers who rely on less expensive
gas will lose. Thousands of refugees
will impact central Europe. The Russian working class will be impoverished. A gas price rise affects everyone in the world. In response, de-dollarization by Russia, China and others is going to haunt the U.S. dollar seignorage privilege. But according to analyses, it will not replace the dollar, as the real flight is to many smaller currencies.
The 2014 “Maidan Revolution” was a coup backed by the U.S.
and NATO. This aggressive action set up the present situation. Unfortunately the Ukraine is squeezed between
two capitalist powers, when what it really needs is independence from both. That will never happen in the present capitalist world, which is dominated by imperialism from the West and neo-colonial attitudes in the Kremlin.
The civilian populations of the Donetsk and Lugansk
republics were in transit, as they were in danger of warfare and invasion
from the west by neo-fascist Ukrainian units.
Peace is their goal. Now it is the turn of the many more Ukrainians. The
Russian working class will pay for this war too, with more draftees, higher
prices, worthless money and more repression. There have been widespread anti-war demonstrations, but they have not reached into the unions and workplaces. Some members of the 2nd strongest party in Russia, the Russian Communist Party, spoke against the invasion. Putin is undermining himself and could ultimately be removed by a wing of billionaires and generals, or a revolt by soldiers in the Russian or Belarus army.
The ultimate responsibility for this situation rests with
the U.S., not Putin. The U.S. has successfully goaded Putin into a fateful, adventurist move,
a plan that was born in the 2014 coup. Putin represents a cornered capitalist
country, which is attempting to exercise some power in its border areas against
what it views as overwhelming and hostile military forces. Détente has been
thrown to the winds by the U.S., which is normal operating procedure. This has also vastly increased the danger of a wider war, even nuclear. With this invasion, Russia has made
a geo-political mistake that will undermine its state. Putin may
think he can use this blitzkrieg and occupation to bargain away NATO, but this
will spur NATO on in other countries. Now formerly neutral Finland is thinking of discussing NATO, though their President shot that one down. Will installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev solve
the situation? Is that even possible? Zelensky did make a recent speech as the
Russians surrounded Kiev that mentioned ‘neutrality,’ so there is a glimmer of settlement. This also occurred during the peace negotiations. Ukraine has to break with NATO and pursue 'neutrality' to solve this question on a capitalist basis.
The Russian bloc with China will be decisive, though Russia
is the junior partner this time. China is calling for reasonable negotiations,
not fake ones. It is staying somewhat
neutral, though pointing to Russia’s security concerns. China's state banks have restricted financing for Russian commodities, so they protecting themselves. China did abstain in the
U.N., which the U.S. media considered a victory for the Ukraine. But economic relations continue and will probably increase as China buys Russian assets.
Putin’s move into Kiev and Odessa is being partly justified
by ethno-nationalist historical claims based on the ‘Rus’ settling there
hundreds of years ago. That is reactionary
and revanchist logic. After all, the Rus
were originally from Daneland and Norway, who also settled in trading centers
like Novgorod in northwestern Russia. On
the political level, a military action like this may satisfy Stalinists, Russophiles, neo-Slavists,
Great Russian chauvinists and uber-nationalist Russians, but no one else. Unless we include the 'red'-Brown' contingent of fake anti-imperialists.
Putin slandered Lenin and the ‘right of self-determination’ in his speech announcing the recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk. This is significant. In Lenin’s last struggle, he blocked with Trotsky, against, among other things, Stalin’s Great Russian chauvinism in dealing with Georgia and Ukraine as independent Soviet Republics. Putin always leaned to Great Russian and Pan-Slavic thinking, as he was trained in it by the Soviet KGB. Now as the leader of a capitalist Russia it has become useful once again as a way to ‘bind’ the Russian people to the powerful billionaires who back the state. This time it will not work so well.
The U.S. / U.K. media does not present a balanced picture because they are mouth-pieces for the U.S. government and the war industries. Many slogans that ‘anti-war’ elements use also seem to be limited and reformist, certainly not proletarian, socialist or internationalist. Two positions - "The Friend of My Friend Is My Enemy" and "Turn the Guns Around" are both flawed. Nor is 'self-determination' in a world of imperialism a possible reality, even in this case. As socialists, we have to keep in mind internationalism, class analysis, revolutionary defeatism and actual abilities.
Here are some
suggestions:
Oppose NATO membership for Ukraine!
No U.S. military aid or advisors to Ukraine!
No Sanctions Against the People of Russia!
Self-determination for Ukraine!
Disarm fascist military units!
Encourage fraternization between Russian and Ukrainian troops and civilians!
Both governments are weak. A United Struggle against both governments!
Oppose the capitalist war-makers on both sides!
Red Frog
Feb 26, 2022 (updated)
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